Geek Stuff: Swine Flu

So the Swine flu buzz is starting up again. Time to apply some basic mathematics.

They say that thus far there have been 1,000,000 cases in the Unites States with 500 deaths. That puts the percentage at .0005 or 5/100ths of 1%.

They estimate that roughly 30% to 50% of the general population could potentially be infected. The current U.S. population is about 300,000,000 people so we’ll take the high end of 150,000,000 sick people. Multiply that by .0005 and we get 75,000 dead. Most of those will be the very old and the very young. Extrapolate by 50 states and you get about 1,500 per state. If you want to be more accurate look at the population centers and weight those heavier.

Those of us in the middle will survive.

The regular flu kills anywhere from 36,000 to 63,000 people per year. So it’s a little worse than the regular flu but nothing we can’t handle.

Here are some tips to lessen the risk of flu or Swine flu.

1) First and most importantl: Frequent hand washings with water as hot as you can stand it and for at least 30-50 seconds. Avoid touching you eyes, nose or mouth if at all possible.

2) Alcohol based sterilizing hand cleaners also work very well.

3) Avoid crowded, congested areas of people like malls, theaters, etc.

4) If you or your kids are sick stay home from work/school. And employers, be cognizant that has the potential to be a pandemic and don’t harass people for taking more than 3 days off. One of the things that annoyed me most when I worked in an office environment was people who come to work hacking and sneezing. They ought to be doused in lysol.

One thought on “Geek Stuff: Swine Flu

  1. “3) Avoid crowded, congested areas of people like malls, theaters, etc. ”

    Oops. My husband and I are going to the National Equality March in DC on Oct. 11, and that pesky H1N1 virus is not going to keep us from it! However, we will take a bottle or two of Purell with us. That’s easy enough to do.

    I read today that folks with asthma, diabetes, or heart disease have an increased chance of death from complications from H1N1. My husband has 2 of the 3 so he’s been freaking out. He called the Ohio Dept. of Health today and someone there told him the vaccine for H1N1 won’t be ready until mid-October at the earliest. I heard at some point in the last few weeks that the government is planning on producing 200 million doses. I just hope he can get one, and me too for that matter.

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